WOODCLOUD · HORSING
CD · 04/30 · LATE PICK 5
POST 2:52 PM

The Lagynos Lock.

The bet, in one line

Cost
—
$10K+ chance
—
Any payout
—

Watch a trial

simulated outcome

Each click runs one of the 10 million simulated race-days through your ticket — leg by leg. Most trials die before R9. About 2% survive all five legs. Of those, about 17% pay $10K or more. Hit replay until you see one.

Your ticket — leg by leg

· 5 legs

The thesis

why this ticket

› Pace picture & ticket logic

    › Key risks

      › Model details

      sensitivity · alternatives · caveats

      P($10K+) vs anchor confidence

      L = anchor true win prob
      primary

      Per-confidence breakdown

      L P($10K+) E[pay] ROI P(any)
      › Top alternative tickets
      # Cost Combos P($10K+) ROI

      Validation caveat

      n_trials —
      seed —
      p_ott —
      git —
      digest —